Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology

Title:

Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology

Creator:

Stojković, Milan, Plavšić, Jasna, and Prohaska, Stevan

Identifier:

https://cdk.lib.cas.cz/client/handle/uuid:5bd19a27-0290-4075-bbe6-0220e214e76c
uuid:5bd19a27-0290-4075-bbe6-0220e214e76c
doi:10.1515/johh-2017-0012

Subject:

stochastic modelling, annual and seasonal hydrological predictions, TIPS method, and The middle Danube River basin

Type:

article, model:article, and TEXT

Description:

The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are presented in this paper. The TIPS method (Yevjevich, 1984) is modified in such a way that annual time scale is used instead of daily. The reason of extracting a seasonal component from discharge time series represents an attempt to identify the long-term stochastic behaviour. The methodology is applied for modelling annual discharges at six gauging stations in the middle Danube River basin using the observed data in the common period from 1931 to 2012. The model performance measures suggest that the modelled time series are matched reasonably well. The model is then used for the short-time predictions for three annual step ahead (2013–2015). The annual discharge predictions of larger river basins for moderate hydrological conditions show reasonable matching with records expressed as the relative error from –8% to +3%. Irrespective of this, wet and dry periods for the aforementioned river basins show significant departures from annual observations. Also, the smaller river basins display greater deviations up to 26% of the observed annual discharges, whereas the accuracy of annual predictions do not strictly depend on the prevailing hydrological conditions.

Language:

Slovak

Rights:

http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/
policy:public

Source:

Journal of hydrology and hydromechanics | 2017 Volume:65 | Number:2

Harvested from:

CDK

Metadata only:

false