This review essay discusses How to Blow Up a Pipeline and Corona, Climate, Chronic Emergency by Andreas Malm. The texts are read not as academic research (presupposing methodological neutrality and objectivity of the author), but as an attempt to use the language and arguments of social sciences to revive strategic debates inside the climate movement, with the author openly disclosing his political positions and trying to convince others. Malm argues that the climate movement is now paralyzed by two myths: social-democratic temporality and non-violence. Both are based on flawed logic that advocacy and reformism can convince capitalism – as the primary cause of climate change – to commit suicide before it is too late, and on false historical analogies declaring that pacifism – not only towards people but towards private property as well – is strategically advantageous. But, he argues, since the climate crisis will only get worse and it is the status quo that creates and deepens it there is no time to wait. The climate movement should escalate conflict and directly attack capitalist economic system, not worrying too much about public support. Each book is thus an attempt to imagine an alternative to the movement’s current strategy: climate sabotage in the case of How to Blow Up a Pipeline and ecological leninism in Corona, Climate, Chronic Emergency.
Real time prediction of return periods of flood events that might occur in the course of anticipated dangerous meteorological situations at a catchment could be useful as additional information for decision makers involved in flood warning. Such a method is proposed in the paper for the Torysa basin in the western part of East Slovakia for rainfall-induced floods. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model with a daily time step was adopted for modelling of the runoff. The study of the relationship between the modelled basin’s soil moisture index at the beginning of the annual maximum floods and the flood-causing precipitation totals showed no dependence between these two quantities. Based on that finding, several scenarios involving the independent joint occurrence of synthetic extreme precipitation and antecedent basin saturation indexes were constructed. Using event-based flood simulations, synthetic flood waves were generated for these scenarios with the rainfall-runoff model. The relationships between the return periods of the synthetic precipitation and the return periods of the simulated floods were analysed, and the effect of antecedent basin saturation index on the extremity of the floods was quantified. Critical values of the basin saturation index leading to floods with higher return periods than the return period of flood-causing precipitation were suggested. A simple method of implementing such critical values into real time flood risk warnings in a hydrological forecasting and warning system in the Torysa basin was outlined. and Predpovedanie N-ročnosti povodní v reálnom čase pri výskyte kritických meteorologických situácií na povodiach je dôležité ako dodatočná informácia z hľadiska rozhodovacieho procesu v protipovodňovom varovnom systéme a následných opatreniach na povodiach. Táto štúdia bola preto zameraná na posudzovanie vzájomného pôsobenia extrémnych príčinných tekutých zrážok a rôznych stavov predchádzajúceho nasýtenia na pilotnom povodí Torysy po Prešov. Pre modelovanie odtoku na povodí bol použitý koncepčný zrážkovo-odtokový model s denným krokom. Pri výbere počiatočných podmienok vzniku povodní sme posudzovali rôzne stavy nasýtenia povodia pred vznikom najväčších ročných povodní, ktoré sa vyskytli na uvedenom povodí v minulosti. Na základe kombinácií modelových extrémnych príčinných zrážok s rôznymi stavmi predchádzajúceho nasýtenia povodia sme hydrologickým modelovaním simulovali odtok z povodia. Analyzoval sa vzťah medzi dobou opakovania modelových zrážok a simulovaných povodní a následne sa kvantifikoval vplyv predchádzajúceho nasýtenia povodia na extremitu odtoku. Určili sa kritické hodnoty nasýtenia povodia, kedy doba opakovania povodní prevyšuje hodnotu doby opakovania príčinných zrážok. Záverom bola navrhnutá jednoduchá metóda implementácie týchto kritických hodnôt pri predpovedaní povodní v reálnom čase na povodí Torysy.