Providing information on the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes is becoming ever more critical. Modelling and evaluating the expected changes of the water resources over different spatial and time scales can be useful in several fields, e.g. agriculture, forestry and water management. Previously a Budyko-type spatially distributed long-term climate-runoff model was developed for Hungary. This research includes the validation of the model using historical precipitation and streamflow measurements for three nested sub-catchments of the Zala River Basin (Hungary), an essential runoff contributing region to Lake Balaton (the largest shallow lake in Central Europe). The differences between the calculated (from water balance) and the estimated (by the model) mean annual evapotranspiration varied between 0.4% and 3.6% in the validation periods in the sub-catchments examined. Predictions of the main components of the water balance (evapotranspiration and runoff) for the Zala Basin are also presented in this study using precipitation and temperature results of 12 regional climate model simulations (A1B scenario) as input data. According to the projections, the mean annual temperature will be higher from period to period (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100), while the change of the annual precipitation sum is not significant. The mean annual evapotranspiration rate is expected to increase slightly during the 21st century, while for runoff a substantial decrease can be anticipated which may exceed 40% by 2071–2100 relative to the reference period (1981–2010). As a result of this predicted reduction, the runoff from the Zala Basin may not be enough to balance the increased evaporation rate of Lake Balaton, transforming it into a closed lake without outflow.
1_Urbanisation is an important cause of species extinctions. Although urban water systems are also highly modified, studies on aquatic or semi-aquatic organisms are rare. The aim of this study is to identify the factors that determine species richness of Odonata in 22 Central European cities and along an urban-rural gradient within six of them. With 64 indigenous species in total and an average of 33 species per city, the species richness of Odonata in Central European cities is comparatively high. A generalised linear model indicates that species richness is positively related to city area. Additional predictors are climatic variables (temperature amplitude, sunshine duration and July temperature) and the year last studied. Since most cities are usually located in areas with naturally high habitat heterogeneity, we assume that cities should be naturally rich in dragonflies. The role of city area as a surrogate for habitat and structural richness most likely explains why it is strongly associated with Odonata species richness. The relationship between species richness and the climatic variables probably reflects that Odonata species richness in Central Europe is limited by warm and sunny conditions more than by availability of water. The temporal effect (the year last studied) on species richness is likely to be a consequence of the recent increase in Mediterranean species associated with global warming. Urbanisation clearly has an adverse effect on the species diversity of Odonata. Species richness increases along a gradient from the centre of a city to the rural area and is significantly highest in rural areas. This pattern probably reflects a gradient of increasing habitat quality from the centre of cities to rural areas. Moreover, the number of water bodies is generally very low in the city centres., 2_Based on our results, we make recommendations for increasing the abundance and number of species of dragonflies in cities., Christoph Willigalla, Thomas Farmann., and Obsahuje seznam literatury
In central Europe Adalia bipunctata (L.) occurs in two main colour morphs (typical, melanic), and A. decempunctata (L.) occurs in 3 morphs (spotted, chequered, dark). Temporal variation in the relative frequency of morphs was recorded in populations of the Czech Republic where geographic variation in morph frequency is low. Seasonal trends were investigated in samples collected by a light-trap run daily from March to November for 14 years. In A. bipunctata the melanic form was more abundant in autumn than in spring but the difference was not significant. In A. decempunctata morph proportions did not change seasonally. Samples were also collected by sweepnet from stands of many plant species. In both Adalia species the morph proportions did not differ significantly among collections made on different plants. Long-term changes in morph proportions were analysed by pooling annual samples over all host plants. In A. bipunctata, sampled in 15 years between 1971-2004, there was no significant change in proportion of typical (90.1%) and melanic (9.9%) forms. In A. decempunctata, sampled in 12 years between 1976-2004, the proportions of "spotted" (mean over the years 29.4%), "chequered" (42.2%) and "dark" (21.3%) morphs varied between years. There was a trend toward an increasing proportion of the spotted form in the 2000s compared to the 1970s and 1980s.