Rain gauges, weather radars, satellite sensors and modelled data from weather centres are used operationally for estimating the spatial-temporal variability of rainfall. However, the associated uncertainties can be very high, especially in poorly equipped regions of the world. Very recently, an innovative method, named SM2RAIN, that uses soil moisture observations to infer rainfall, has been proposed by Brocca et al. (2013) with very promising results when applied with in situ and satellite-derived data. However, a thorough analysis of the physical consistency of the SM2RAIN algorithm has not been carried out yet. In this study, synthetic soil moisture data generated from a physically-based soil water balance model are employed to check the reliability of the assumptions made in the SM2RAIN algorithm. Next, high quality and multiyear in situ soil moisture observations, at different depths (5-30 cm), and rainfall for ten sites across Europe are used for testing the performance of the algorithm, its limitations and applicability range. SM2RAIN shows very high accuracy in the synthetic experiments with a correlation coefficient, R, between synthetically generated and simulated data, at daily time step, higher than 0.940 and an average Bias lower than 4%. When real datasets are used, the agreement between observed and simulated daily rainfall is slightly lower with average R-values equal to 0.87 and 0.85 in the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Overall, the performance is found to be better in humid temperate climates and for sensors installed vertically. Interestingly, algorithms of different complexity in the reproduction of the underlying hydrological processes provide similar results. The average contribution of surface runoff and evapotranspiration components amounts to less than 4% of the total rainfall, while the soil moisture variations (63%) and subsurface drainage (30%) terms provide a much higher contribution. Overall, the SM2RAIN algorithm is found to perform well both in the synthetic and real data experiments, thus offering a new and independent source of data for improving rainfall estimation, and consequently enhancing hydrological, meteorological and climatic studies.
The interception was recognized as an important part of the catchment water balance in temperate climate. The mountainous forest ecosystem at experimental headwater catchment Liz has been subject of long-term monitoring. Unique dataset in terms of time resolution serves to determine canopy storage capacity and free throughfall. Spatial variability of throughfall was studied using one weighing and five tipping bucket rain gauges. The basic characteristics of forest affecting interception process were determined for the Norway spruce stand at the experimental area - the leaf area index was 5.66 - 6.00 m2 m-2, the basal area was 55.7 m2 ha-1, and the crown closure above individual rain gauges was between 19 and 95%. The total interception loss in both growing seasons analyzed was 34.5%. The mean value of the interception capacity determined was about 2 mm. Throughfall exhibited high variability from place to place and it was strongly affected by character of rainfall. On the other hand, spatial pattern of throughfall in average showed low variability.
Rain is not uniform in time and space in semiarid areas and its distribution is very important for the runoff process. Hydrological studies usually divide rainfall into events. However, defining rain events is complicated, and rain characteristics vary depending on how the events are delimited. Choosing a minimum inter-event time (MIT) is a commonly used criterion. Our hypothesis is that there will be an optimal MIT that explains the maximum part of the variance of the runoff, with time to runoff used as a surrogate. The objective is to establish a procedure in order to decide upon this optimal MIT. We developed regressions between time to runoff (T0) and three descriptive variables of rain. Our results show that the optimum MIT is 1 hour, which seems to be the minimum period of time required for water in larger macropores to drain and sufficiently modify the effect of antecedent soil moisture on the runoff generation process. Rain events are classified into three significantly different groups: (1) large and intense rains, (2) light rains on wet soil, and (3) light rains on dry soil. Intense rains produce most of the runoff, but there were significant differences between small events in the runoff generated. Of rain events, 63.75% are single-tip events, and many could be dew.
It is commonly thought that one is irrationally akratic when one believes one ought to F but does not intend to F. However, some philosophers, following Robert Audi, have argued that it is sometimes rational to have this combination of attitudes. I here consider the question of whether rational akrasia is possible. I argue that those arguments for the possibility of rational akrasia advanced by Audi and others do not succeed. Specifically, I argue that cases in which an akratic agent acts as he has most reason to act, and cases in which an akratic agent achieves a kind of global coherence he wouldn’t have achieved had he instead formed intentions in line with his best judgment, do not establish the possibility of rational akrasia. However, I do think that rational akrasia is possible, and I present two arguments for this thesis. The first argument involves a case in which one is incapable of revising one’s belief about what one ought to do, where one also acknowledges this belief to be insufficiently supported by the evidence. The second argument involves a case in which one rationally believes that one ought to have an akratic combination of attitudes., To je obyčejně si myslel, že jeden je nesmyslně akratic když někdo věří, jeden mít F , ale nemá v úmyslu F . Nicméně, někteří filozofové, následovat Roberta Audi, argumentovali, že to je někdy rozumné mít tuto kombinaci postojů. Zvažuji otázku, zda je možná racionální akrasie . Tvrdím, že tyto argumenty týkající se možnosti racionální akrasie, kterou Audi a další předložili, nejsou úspěšné. Konkrétně tvrdím, že případy, ve kterých akratický agent jedná, když má nejvíc důvodů jednat, a případy, ve kterých akratický agent dosahuje určitého druhu globální soudržnosti, kterého by nedosáhl, kdyby místo toho vytvořil úmysly v souladu s jeho nejlepším úsudkem , nezavádějí možnost racionálníakrasia . Myslím si však, že racionální akrasie je možná a předkládám dva argumenty pro tuto práci. První argument se týká případu, kdy člověk není schopen revidovat svou víru v to, co by měl člověk dělat, a zároveň uznává, že tato víra není dostatečně podložena důkazy. Druhý argument se týká případu, ve kterém se člověk racionálně domnívá, že člověk by měl mít akrativní kombinaci postojů., and John Brunero
Claims that emotions are or can be rational, and crucially enabling of rationality, are now fairly common, also outside of philosophy, but with considerable diversity both in their assumptions about emotions and their conceptions of rationality. Three main trends are worth picking out, both in themselves and for the potential tensions between them: accounts that defend a case for the rationality of emotions A) by assimilating emotions closely to beliefs or judgements; B) in terms of the very features that traditional views of emotions as irrational/a-rational emphasized; C) by arguing that emotions exhibit a more sui generis kind of rationality, often one based on a narrative or dramaturgic ''inner logic''., Tvrdí, že emoce jsou nebo mohou být racionální a rozhodně umožňující racionalitu, jsou nyní poměrně běžné, i mimo filosofii, ale se značnou rozmanitostí jak v jejich předpokladech o emocích, tak v jejich pojmech racionality. Tři hlavní trendy stojí za to vyzvednout, a to jak v sobě, tak i pro potenciální napětí mezi nimi: účty, které obhajují případ racionality emocí A) tím, že se emoce úzce přizpůsobují vírám nebo úsudkům; B) z hlediska samotných rysů, které tradiční názory na emoce považují za iracionální / racionální; C) argumentací, že emoce vykazují více sui generis druh racionality, často založené na narativní nebo dramaturgické ,,vnitřní logice''., and Sophie Rietti
This paper reports on experience with developing the flood forecasting model for the Upper Danube basin and its operational use since 2006. The model system consists of hydrological and hydrodynamic components, and involves precipitation forecasts. The model parameters were estimated based on the dominant processes concept. Runoff data are assimilated in real time to update modelled soil moisture. An analysis of the model performance indicates 88% of the snow cover in the basin to be modelled correctly on more than 80% of the days. Runoff forecasting errors decrease with catchment area and increase with forecast lead time. The forecast ensemble spread is shown to be a meaningful indicator of the forecast uncertainty. During the 2013 flood, there was a tendency for the precipitation forecasts to underestimate event precipitation and for the runoff model to overestimate runoff generation which resulted in, overall, rather accurate runoff forecasts. It is suggested that the human forecaster plays an essential role in interpreting the model results and, if needed, adjusting them before issuing the forecasts to the general public.
Wilfrid Sellars’ philosophical system joins issues that have often been regarded as incompatible or at least in mutual tension. Two of these are his holistic approach to language and knowledge on the one hand and his realism on the other hand. In my paper I first outline this tension and then present a number of steps, including the rejection of semantic relations, picturing and the defense of realism, which can help us to accommodate it. I highlight the payoff of these steps for the question to be solved. In the last part of the paper I detect new and more refined tensions revealed by Sellars’ solution. I identify possible dissonances between his Kantian and his naturalist treatment of causality as well as between his two ways of conceiving of language arguing that these new questions furnish a more interesting approach to our initial problem., Filozofický systém Wilfrida Sellara spojuje otázky, které jsou často považovány za neslučitelné nebo alespoň ve vzájemném napětí. Dva z nich jsou jeho holistický přístup k jazyku a znalostem na jedné straně a jeho realismus na straně druhé. Ve svém příspěvku nejprve nastiňuji toto napětí a pak představuji řadu kroků, včetně odmítnutí sémantických vztahů, zobrazování a obrany realismu, které nám mohou pomoci vstříc. Zdůrazňuji výplatu těchto kroků za otázku, která má být vyřešena. V poslední části práce zjišťuji nová a rafinovanější napětí, která odhalila Sellarsova řešení. Identifikuji možné disonance mezi jeho kantiánskou a jeho naturalistickou léčbou kauzality, stejně jako mezi jeho dvěma způsoby chápání jazyka argumentující, že tyto nové otázky poskytují zajímavější přístup k našemu počátečnímu problému., and Stefanie Dach
In September 1987 an accident occurred with a cesium chloride (CsCl) teletherapy source taken from a cancer therapy institute in Goiânia, Brazil. Misuse of the abandoned source caused widespread contamination of radioactive material (about 50 TBq of 137Cs) in the town of Goiânia. Decontamination of affected areas did lead to about 3,500 m3 of solid radioactive wastes, which were disposed in two near-surface repositories built in concrete in 1995. This paper documents a safety assessment of one of the low-level radioactive waste deposits containing 137Cs over a time period of 600 years. Using HYDRUS-1D, we first obtained estimates of water infiltrating through the soil cover on top of the repository into and through the waste and its concrete liners and the underlying vadose zone towards groundwater. Calculations accounted for local precipitation and evapotranspiration rates, including root water uptake by the grass cover, as well as for the effects of concrete degradation on the hydraulic properties of the concrete liners. We next simulated long-term water fluxes and 137Cs transport from the repository towards groundwater. Simulations accounted for the effects of 137Cs sorption and radioactive decay on radionuclide transport from the waste to groundwater, thus permitting an evaluation of potential consequences to the environment and long-term exposure to the public. Consistent with previous assessments, our calculations indicate that very little if any radioactive material will reach the water table during the lifespan of the repository, also when accounting for preferential flow through the waste.