Surface deformation due to underground exploitation affects the safety of overlying structures. Forecasting can predict risks to surface structures and facilitates actions designed to improve their resilience and reduce the potential impact of mining activities. However, forecasting accuracy is limited. Therefore, in practice, model parameters are determined within a certain margin to ensure that critical values of deformation indicators for surface objects are not exceeded. For economic reasons, it is important to minimize these margins while also ensuring that safety is maintained. One important factor influencing forecasting accuracy is the uncertainty in deformation model parameters used for calculations. Therefore, it is critical to adopt an appropriate methodology for determining and addressing the uncertainties in deformation model parameters used in forecasting. This study presents methods for estimating the Knothe's model parameters needed to forecast surface deformation caused by underground mining and defining the uncertainties in those forecasts. Depending on the parameter uncertainties, one of two methods for propagation is proposed: the Monte Carlo method or the law of propagation of uncertainty. Using this approach, it is possible to account for uncertainty and reduce forecast margins. A case study of hard coal mining in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin region of Poland is presented., Wojciech Gruszczyński, Zygmunt Niedojadło and Dawid Mrocheń., and Obsahuje bibliografii
In Lepidoptera, larval dietary experience of volatile cues can induce adult preference for these cues. However, such induction may require several generations, depending in part on the degree of specialization of the insects. In a previous study, using species of noctuid stem borers with different diet breadths, namely the polyphagous Sesamia nonagrioides, the oligophagous Busseola fusca and monophagous Busseola nairobica, it was shown that in S. nonagrioides, one generation was enough to induce a preference for vanillin in the resulting gravid females, whereas even two generations failed to induce a response in adults of Busseola spp. In this study, we checked whether a higher number of generations of exposure to a vanillin-enriched medium could induce a significant olfactory preference for this medium in the species B. fusca and B. nairobica, which have narrower host-plant utilization ranges than S. nonagrioides. Larvae were reared to the adult stage on an artificial diet enriched with vanillin for periods of from 2 to 7 or 8 generations, followed by two-choice tests on gravid females using a Y-tube olfactometer. The results showed different responses according to the species: for the oligophagous B. fusca, there was no significant effect of the conditioning, while a significant preference for the odours emitted by this new vanillin-enriched diet was recorded for the polyphagous S. nonagrioides and monophagous B. nairobica, but after different numbers of generations. In conclusion, different diet breadths seem to be associated with different levels of plasticity in the odour preference of adults. The implication of this result for insects' adaptability in a changing landscape is discussed., Christophe Petit, Peter Ahuya, Bruno Le Ru, Laure Kaiser-Arnauld, Myriam Harry, Paul-André Calatayud., and Obsahuje bibliografii
Urban gardens can harbour a high diversity of insects, which are critically important components of urban ecosystems. In this work, we investigate the richness and diversity of a major taxon of economic and ecological importance, the aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae), and their main insect predators, the hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) and ladybirds (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), in urban gardens. We examined how variation in environmental factors associated with urbanisation (garden host plant abundance, garden plant richness, garden size, proportion of impervious surfaces in the surrounding area) directly and indirectly (via prey and predator abundance) influence the local diversity and abundance of aphids, ladybirds, and hoverflies. Sixty-seven domestic gardens located in southern England were surveyed during the peak period of aphid abundance, and the numbers and identity of aphids and their predators were recorded. We observed 45 aphid species (179917 individuals in total), 15 hoverfly species (494 individuals) and 8 ladybird species (173 individuals). We found that aphid species richness and abundance were positively associated with utilised host plant abundance and garden plant species richness. Hoverfly abundance was positively correlated with garden plant richness. The abundance of ladybirds was positively correlated with aphid abundance and garden plant species richness, and negatively associated to the proportion of impervious surfaces in the surrounding environment. The difference in responses between the two major taxa of aphid predators may reflect differences in their behaviour and natural history. Our results indicate that overall increases in urban land cover are not favourable for ladybirds as a group, and that fine scale habitat variables that are determined by garden owners have the potential to greatly affect the diversity of aphids and their primary predators., Elise A. Rocha, Estevão N.F. Souza, Lewis A.D. Bleakley, Christopher Burley, Jade L. Mott, Gloria Rue-Glutting, Mark D.E. Fellowes., and Obsahuje bibliografii