The paper contains a sensitivity analysis of the influence of uncertainties in input hydrological, morphological and operating data required for a proposal for active reservoir conservation storage capacity and its achieved values. By introducing uncertainties into the considered inputs of the water management analysis of a reservoir, the subsequent analysed reservoir storage capacity is also affected with uncertainties. The values of water outflows from the reservoir and the hydrological reliabilities are affected with uncertainties as well. A simulation model of reservoir behaviour has been compiled with this kind of calculation as stated below. The model allows evaluation of the solution results, taking uncertainties into consideration, in contributing to a reduction in the occurrence of failure or lack of water during reservoir operation in low-water and dry periods.
Článok sa zaoberá problematikou použitia generátorov pseudonáhodných čísiel v numerických metódach štatistickej fyziky. Na začiatku stručne oboznamuje s históriou metód Monte Carlo. Ďalej obsahuje popis jednoduchého algoritmu, ktorý pomocou náhodných čísiel vypočítá Ludolfovo číslo. V poslednej časti je predložený prehĺad známych generátorov a posúdenie ich vhodnosti pro použitie v metódach Monte Carlo., Michal Kaňok., and Obsahuje seznam literatury
In normal practice, during the estimation of reservoir storage uncertainties affecting the values of mean monthly discharge series are not normally considered, and usually no estimates of these are known. Therefore, the question arises as to whether the results of the estimation of the capacity of storage reservoirs may be affected by uncertainties in the discharge series. The aim of this article is the suggestion of a possible approach to estimating the level of uncertainties affecting the elements of mean monthly discharge series. These discharge series are subsequently integrated into water reservoir storage capacity calculations, and the significance of the proposed approach is explored. and Nejistoty členů řad průměrných měsíčních průtoků nejsou v běžné praxi udávány, není ani znám odhad jejích velikostí. Otázkou rovněž je, zda nejistotami zatížené průtokové řady mohou ovlivnit výsledky vodohospodářského řešení zásobní funkce vodní nádrže. Cílem článku je naznačení možného postupu odhadu míry nejistot zatěžujících členy průtokové řady průměrných měsíčních průtoků a následné začlenění uvedené řady do výpočtů zásobního objemu vodní nádrže a posouzení významu uvedeného postupu.
Predicting surface deformations caused by underground mining is an issue of significance both for the safety of overlaying facilities and for economic purposes. There are many different models for predicting the impact of underground mining on the land surface. One of them is the Knothe model commonly used in Poland and in the world. The paper presents two methods of estimating Knothe model parameters uncertainty. The parallel application of two methods enables the mutual verification of the results obtained and the identification of the potential errors and their sources in the case of any discrepancies. The first method is based on the so-called law of propagation of uncertainty, which in essence is the approximation based on the first-order Taylor series expansion. The second presented method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation.
This article describes statistical evaluation of the computational model for precipitation forecast and proposes a method for uncertainty modelling of rainfall-runoff models in the Floreon+ system based on this evaluation. The Monte-Carlo simulation method is used for estimating possible river discharge and provides several confidence intervals that can support the decisions in operational disaster management. Experiments with other parameters of the model and their influence on final river discharge are also discussed.