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Start Over Subject probability

2. Akrasia and uncertainty

Creator:
Wedgwood, Ralph
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
act individuation, akrasia, John Broome, decision theory, practical rationality, probability, and uncertainty
Language:
Slovak
Description:
According to John Broome, akrasia consists in a failure to intend to do something that one believes one ought to do, and such akrasia is necessarily irrational. In fact, however, failing to intend something that one believes one ought to do is only guaranteed to be irrational if one is certain of a maximally detailed proposition about what one ought to do; if one is uncertain about any part of the full story about what one ought to do, it could be perfectly rational not to intend to do something that one believes one ought to do. This paper seeks to remedy this problem, by proposing an anti-akrasia principle that covers cases of uncertainty (as well as cases of such complete certainty). It is argued that this principle is in effect the fundamental principle of practical rationality., Podle Johna Broome, akrasia spočívá v selhání v úmyslu udělat něco, co člověk věří, kdo by měl dělat, a takové akrasia nutně iracionální. Ve skutečnosti se však nedaří v úmyslu něco, co člověk věří, kdo by měl udělat, je zaručeno, že iracionální, pokud je jen jistá o maximálně podrobným tvrzením o tom, co kdo měl dělat; pokud si člověk není jistý, jakou část celého příběhu by měl udělat, mohlo by to být naprosto rozumné, kdybychom neměli v úmyslu dělat něco, co by člověk věřil. Tento dokument se snaží tento problém napravit tím, že navrhne protiarasiizásada, která se vztahuje na případy nejistoty (jakož i případy takové úplné jistoty). Tvrdí se, že tato zásada je ve skutečnosti základním principem praktické racionality., and Ralph Wedgwood
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ and policy:public

3. Determination of the fatigue strength of a railway vehicle node using the probability approach

Creator:
Václavík, Jaroslav, Marek, Pavel, Chvojan, Jan, and Kepka, Miloslav
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
railway, wagon, probability, fatigue, service life, Goodman diagram, and SBRA
Language:
English
Description:
This paper presents a case study for the strength demonstration of a railway wagon welded node using the probability approach. The design variables were taken from the existing standardization for railway vehicles. The fatigue damage summation method for proving the satisfactory service life as well as the Goodman diagram method for verification of the unlimited service life was used for the node examination. The probability estimation was made using the Monte Carlo SBRA method with the help of the Anthill software. and Obsahuje seznam literatury
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

4. Floppy logic - a younger sister of fuzzy logic

Creator:
Provinský, P.
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
floppy logic, floppy sets, fuzzy logic, fuzzy sets, probability, Kolmogorov’s axioms, and floppy probability space
Language:
English
Description:
This article introduces a floppy logic – a new method of work with fuzzy sets. This theory is a nice connection between the logic, the probability theory and the fuzzy sets. The floppy logic has several advantages compared to the fuzzy logic: All propositions, which are equivalent in the bivalent logic, are equivalent in the floppy logic too. Logical operations are modeled unambiguously, not by using many alternative t-norms and t-conorms. In floppy logic, we can use the whole apparatus of Kolmogorov’s probability theory. This theory allows to work consistently with systems that are described by fuzzy sets, probability distributions and accurate values simultaneously.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ and policy:public

5. Floppy logic - instructions for use

Creator:
Provinský, Pavel
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
floppy logic, floppy sets, fuzzy logic, fuzzy sets, and probability
Language:
English
Description:
This article provides a simple and practical tutorial on how to use floppy logic. The floppy logic is a method suitable for systems control and description. It preserves the simplicity of the fuzzy logic and the accuracy of the probability theory. The floppy logic allows to work consistently and simultaneously with data in the form of exact numbers, probability distributions and fuzzy sets.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ and policy:public

6. On experimental system for multidimensional model development MUDIM

Creator:
Jiroušek, Radim
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
probability, multidimensional distribution, composition, program package, and language R
Language:
English
Description:
Several systems supporting development and application of graphical Markov inodels are widely used; perliaps the most famous are HUGIN and NETICA, which are supporting Bayesian networks. The goal of this paper is to introduce system MUDIM, which is intended to support non-graphical multidimensional models, namely cornpositional models. The basic idea of these inodels resembles jig-saw puzzle, where a picture must be assembled from a great number of pieces, each bearing a small part of a picture. Analogously, compositional models of a multidimensional distribution are assenililed (composed) of a great number of low-dirnensional distributions. One of the advantages of this approach is that the same apparatus that is based on operators of composition, can be applied for description of both probabilistic and possibilistic models. This is also the goal for future MUDIM development, to extend it in the way that it will be able to process both probabilistic and possibilistic models.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ and policy:public

7. On some contributions to quantum structures by fuzzy sets

Creator:
Riečan, Beloslav
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
probability, fuzzy sets, MV-algebra, and IF events
Language:
English
Description:
It is well known that the fuzzy sets theory can be successfully used in quantum models ([5, 26]). In this paper we give first a review of recent development in the probability theory on tribes and their generalizations - multivalued (MV)-algebras. Secondly we show some applications of the described method to develop probability theory on IF-events.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ and policy:public

8. Probability analysis of reinforced concrete structure failure of nuclear power plants due to loss of coolant accident

Creator:
Králik, Juraj
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
nuclear power plants, concrete containment, structural integrity, concrete cracing and crushing, ANSYS, MONTE CARLO, and probability
Language:
English
Description:
This paper describes the probabilty analysis of reinforced concrete containment structure of NPP with the reactor VVER V-230 under high internal overpressure. The summary of calculation models and calculation methods for the probability analysis of the structural integrity in the case of the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) is showed. The probabilistic structural analysis (PSA) level 2 aims at an assessment of the probability of the concrete structure failure under excessive overpressure. In the non-linear analysis of the concrete structures a layered approximation of the shell elements with various material properties have been included. The uncertainties of longtime temperature and dead loads, material properties (concrete cracking and crushing, reinforcement, and liner) and model uncertainties were taken into account in the 106 direct MONTE CARLO simulations. The results of the probability analysis of the containment failure under excessive overpressure show that in the case of the LOCA accident at overpressure of 122,7 kPa the probability is smaller than the required 10-4 for design resistance. and Obsahuje seznam literatury
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ and policy:public

9. Srovnávání nesrovnatelného

Creator:
Králík, Jan
Format:
bez média and svazek
Type:
model:article and TEXT
Subject:
corpora, heterogeneous, probability, infinity, korpusy, heterogenita, pravděpodobnost, and nekonečno
Language:
Czech
Description:
Both historical and recent developments of quantitative research in linguistics brought out a great amount of data without a unifying method. The older data have been computed mainly by hand from limited samples of shorter texts, with limited possibilities of data combinations. Newer data based on large corpora offer a great number of quantitative characteristics even in the most different combinations, but they have been mainly extracted from heterogeneous text materials. Statistically, the older data can be considered as less exact. New data, with respect to enormous extent of corpora, can be considered as most exact. Therefore, problems arise not only because of the above mentioned methodological disparities of old and new approaches of computation, but also because of different details studied or because of limited possibilities of direct comparison. Deeper statistical and probabilistic questions arise too, and their discussion should not be ignored.
Rights:
http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ and policy:public