Historical data sources on abundance of organisms are valuable for determining responses of those organisms to climate change and coincidence of changes amongst different organisms. We investigate data on the general abundance of Lepidoptera over an 89 year period 1864-1952. We related abundance to monthly mean temperature and precipitation and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and to numbers of migrants from an independent source. Abundances of Lepidoptera were significantly positively correlated with current year temperatures for May to September and November and significantly negatively correlated with temperatures in January. Numbers were also negatively correlated with rainfall for April and May and annual total of the current year and with August in the previous year. Abundance of Lepidoptera decreased significantly with an increasing winter NAO index. Increased overall abundance in Lepidoptera coincided significantly with increased numbers of migrants. The climate associations were very similar to those previously reported for butterfly data collected by the British Butterfly Monitoring Scheme; although warm and drier summers were generally beneficial to Lepidoptera populations, wet summers and winters and mild winters were not. We discuss the implications for Lepidoptera biology and populations in regions of Britain in the face of projected climate changes.
The number of species of migratory Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) reported each year at a site in the south of the UK has been rising steadily. This number is very strongly linked to rising temperatures in SW Europe. It is anticipated that further climate warming within Europe will increase the numbers of migratory Lepidoptera reaching the UK and the consequences of this invasion need urgent attention.
With climatic warming there is an expectation that phytophagous insects will increasingly use alien (non native) plants as nectar sources and larval host plants. Alien plant use is investigated in British butterflies. Butterflies are considered to be larval host plant specialists relative to their use of nectar plants. Supporting this view, use of alien plants as nectar sources (50.1%, 27 novel plant families) is almost twice that of their use as larval host plants (21.6%; three novel plant families). Some 80% of the variation in percent alien nectar plant use is accounted against 30% of that for percent alien host plant use. The key variable accounting for alien plant use is butterfly mobility. Other prominent variables that facilitate access to alien nectar plants are southern distributions, longer adult life span, host plants in garden biotopes. A different set of variables additionally account for alien host plant exploitation (% alien host plant use: woody host plants; number of alien host plants: polyphagy; greater abundance of native host plants in gardens). Although threatened butterfly species do not depend on alien plants, this may well reflect on specialisation in resource use accompanying habitat fragmentation and an inability to use novel resources that are becoming increasingly available. Detailed study of alien resources is advocated to assess the importance of alien plant resources for phytophagous insects.