In the paper a sequential monitoring scheme is proposed to detect instability of parameters in a multivariate autoregressive process. The proposed monitoring procedure is based on the quasi-likelihood scores and the quasi-maximum likelihood estimators of the respective parameters computed from a training sample, and it is designed so that the sequential test has a small probability of a false alarm and asymptotic power one as the size of the training sample is sufficiently large. The asymptotic distribution of the detector statistic is established under both the null hypothesis of no change as well as under the alternative that a change occurs.
This work deals with a multivariate random coefficient autoregressive model (RCA) of the first order. A class of modified least-squares estimators of the parameters of the model, originally proposed by Schick for univariate first-order RCA models, is studied under more general conditions. Asymptotic behavior of such estimators is explored, and a lower bound for the asymptotic variance matrix of the estimator of the mean of random coefficient is established. Finite sample properties are demonstrated in a small simulation study.