In this article a predictive model and a novel methodology of processing the data measured in the physical model of an optical telecommunications infrastructure is presented. The task is motivated by practical use of the results of experiments in the environment of the telecommunications network. We present an original predictive model and methodology, reflecting the specifics of examined infrastructure. The probabilistic prediction of the occurrence of emergencies is calculated via cluster analysis techniques used in Bayesian approach in the n-dimensional data space. The predictive model is experimentally verified on real data. Results of experiments are interpreted for practical use in real environment of the telecommunications infrastructure.