Flow in compound channels with overbank flows becomes more complex because of shear interactions between flows in main channel and flood plains, lateral momentum transfer and secondary flows. Compound channels have interesting applications in flood control, civil engineering and environmental management. Because it is difficult to obtain sufficiently accurate and comprehensive understandings of flow in natural compound rivers, the developed models of flow in overbank flows have many uncertainties. The main aims of this paper are to analysis and quantify the uncertainty results of quasi two dimensional flow modeling in compound channels. In this paper a quasi two dimensional depth averaged model, known as Shiono and Knight Model (SKM), in compound channel is used and uncertainty analysis of its simulation results is done based on Monte-Carlo simulations. Results indicated that although the SKM model can simulate quasi-two-dimensional flow accurately but it has many uncertainties in simulation results. The uncertainties of model results in high are greater than low flows. Also uncertainties in discharge capacity and shear stress are greater than those for velocity profiles. Overall results cleared that the SKM model, beyond from its strong physical basics, requires rigorous effort on local calibration processes, especially for high flood flows and these limit its global applicability and generalities. and Prúdenie vody v kanáli so zloženým profilom a s prúdením mimo koryta je javom zložitým, predovšetkým pre interakcie medzi prúdením v hlavnom toku a prúdením v zaplavenom území, ktoré spôsobujú laterálny transport momentu a sekundárne prúdenie. Zložené kanály sa často používajú najmä pri protipovodňovej ochrane, v staviteľstve a v oblasti životného prostredia. Pretože je zložité získať dostatok pesných informácií o prúdení vody v zložených korytách prirodzených tokov, existujúce modely prúdenia vody v zložených profiloch s mimobrehovým prúdením obsahujú veľa neistôt. Cieľom tohto príspevku je analýza a kvantifikácia neistôt vo výsledkoch simulácie kvázi-dvojrozmerného prúdenia v zloženom kanáli s prúdením mimo koryta. V tejto práci používame kvázi-dvojrozmerný vertikálne spriemerovaný model, známy ako model Shiona a Knighta (SKM) pre zložený profil. Analýza neurčitosti je realizovaná metódou Monte-Carlo. Výsledky naznačujú, že model SKM je schopný simulovať kvázi-dvojrozmerné prúdenie pomerne presne, výsledky simulácií sú však značne neurčité. Tieto neistoty sú väčšie ako minimálne prietoky. Taktiež neurčitosti v prietokoch a v tangenciálnych silách sú väčšie ako neurčitosti pre rýchlostné profily. Celkovo výsledky ukazujú, že model SKM, nehľadiac na jeho silný fyzikálny základ, si vyžaduje kalibráciu, predovšetkým pre vysoké prietoky, čo limituje rozsah jeho použitia.
Knowledge on soil moisture is indispensable for a range of hydrological models, since it exerts a considerable influence on runoff conditions. Proper tools are nowadays applied in order to gain in-sight into soil moisture status, especially of uppermost soil layers, which are prone to weather changes and land use practices. In order to establish relationships between meteorological conditions and topsoil moisture, a simple model would be required, characterized by low computational effort, simple structure and low number of identified and calibrated parameters. We demonstrated, that existing model for shallow soils, considering mass exchange between two layers ( the upper and the lower), as well as with the atmosphere and subsoil, worked well for sandy loam with deep ground water table in Warsaw conurbation. GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) linked with GSA (Global Sensitivity Analysis) provided for final determination of parameter values and model confidence ranges. Including the uncertainty in a model structure, caused that the median soil moisture solution of the GLUE was shifted from the one optimal in deterministic sense. From the point of view of practical model application, the main shortcoming were the underestimated water exchange rates between the lower soil layer (ranging from the depth of 0.1 to 0.2 m below ground level) and subsoil. General model quality was found to be satisfactory and promising for its utilization for establishing measures to regain retention in urbanized conditions.
Area of the Czech Republic is located in headwater area of central Europe. As a result a flood concentration and travel times are quite short (generally from hours to 2 or 3 days). Therefore QPF must be used to provide sufficient lead-time of the hydrological forecast. In addition, the significant orography influence demands rather detailed spatial resolution of NWP model. ALADIN NWP precipitation forecast is used for hydrological models. ALADIN produces only deterministic QPF. Hence the evaluation of QPF uncertainty from the hydrological point of view is necessary. For different basins, time intervals and QPF intervals the difference of QPF and MAP was made and exceedance curves were derived. Using these curves we can post-process determinant QPF to obtain different QPF variants which input hydrological model. Despite its simplicity this approach provides some additional probabilistic information to main model run. and Česká republika z hydrologického pohledu leží ve zdrojové oblasti střední Evropy. Následkem toho doba koncentrace povodní a dotokové doby jsou relativně krátké (maximálně 2 až 3 dny). Z toho důvodu je pro dosažení dostatečného předstihu hydrologické předpovědi nezbytné využívat kvantitativní předpověď srážek (QPF) s relativně vysokým prostorovým rozlišením. Do hydrologického předpovědního systému AquaLog vstupují deterministické předpovědi srážek meteorologického modelu ALADIN. Nezbytné je vyhodnocení vstupujících QPF z hlediska hydrologických potřeb. Pro 88 povodí byly pro různé časové intervaly odvozeny křivky překročení odchylek QPF a MAP (průměrná srážka na povodí). Na jejich podkladě jsou z deterministické QPF odvozeny variantní srážkové předpovědi, které vstupují jako výpočtové varianty do hydrologického modelu. Výsledkem jsou hydrologické variantní předpovědi s určitou pravděpodobností dosažení. Přes jednoduchost daného přístupu tento poskytuje jakousi přidanou pravděpodobnostní informaci k hlavní deterministické předpovědi.
In the present study, a scheme based on fuzzy finite element method was provided for uncertainty quantification of liquefied saturated soil response under dynamic loading. In this respect, the coupled dynamic equations which are known as u-p equations were used, and instead of crisp values for input parameters, including permeability coefficient, specific mass of the soil, compressibility and shear modulus, their fuzzy numbers were used. At the end, displacements and pore water pressure created during earthquake were reported as fuzzy numbers. After verifying procedures of fuzzy analysis by experimental results from the centrifuge model test No. 1 from the VELACS project, several membership grades were considered. Firstly, the effect of fuzzification of each input soil parameter investigated individually, and then effect of considering all four input soil parameters as fuzzy numbers was analyzed by developed method. It was indicated that results of the analysis during the effective time of the earthquake were strongly influenced by the shear modulus and partially by compressibility modulus, and after this time, it was mainly affected by the permeability coefficient. Also considering uncertainty nature of specific mass of the soil had no significant effect on the results.
This study investigates the identity of hookworms parasitising the Australian sea lion, Neophoca cinerea (Péron), from three colonies in South Australia, Australia. The Australian sea lion is at risk of extinction because its population is small and genetically fragmented. Using morphological and molecular techniques, we describe a single novel species, Uncinaria sanguinis sp. n. (Nematoda: Ancylostomatidae). The new species is most similar to hookworms also parasitic in otariid hosts, Uncinaria lucasi Stiles, 1901 and Uncinaria hamiltoni Baylis, 1933. Comparative morphometrics offered limited utility for distinguishing between species within this genus whilst morphological features and differences in nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences delineated U. sanguinis sp. n. from named congeners. Male specimens of U. sanguinis sp. n. differ from U. lucasi and U. hamiltoni by relatively shorter anterolateral and externodorsal rays, respectively, and from other congeners by the relative lengths and angulations of bursal rays, and in the shape of the spicules. Female specimens of U. sanguinis sp. n. are differentiated from Uncinaria spp. parasitic in terrestrial mammals by differences in vulval anatomy and the larger size of their eggs, although are morphologically indistinguishable from U. lucasi and U. hamiltoni. Molecular techniques clearly delimited U. sanguinis sp. n. as a distinct novel species. Obtaining baseline data on the parasites of wildlife hosts is important for the investigation of disease and the effective implementation and monitoring of conservation management.
Since the early 20th century underdetermination has been one of the most contentious problems in the philosophy of science. In this article I relate the underdetermination problem to models in biology and defend two main lines of argument: First, the use of models in this discipline lends strong support to the underdetermination thesis. Second, models and theories in biology are not determined strictly by the logic of representation of the studied phenomena, but also by other constraints such as research traditions, backgrounds of the scientists, aims of the research and available technology. Convincing evidence for the existence of underdetermination in biology, where models abound, comes both from the fact that for a natural phenomenon we can create a number of candidate models but also from the fact that we do not have a universal rule that would adjudicate among them. This all makes a strong case for the general validity of the underdetermination thesis., Nedourčenost je jedním ze zásadních problémů filosofie vědy od počátku 20. století. Ve svém příspěvku vztahuju tezi o nedourčenosti k biologickým modelům a obhajuju následující dva argumenty: Za prvé, použití modelů v této disciplíně dodává silnou váhu tezi o nedourčenosti. Za druhé, modely a teorie v biologii nejsou determinovány striktně logikou reprezentace studovaného jevu, ale také dalšími faktory, jako jsou výzkumné tradice, background vědců, cíle výzkumu a dostupné technologie. Přesvědčivý důkaz o existenci nedourčenosti v biologii, která modelů v hojné míře využívá, pramení nejenom z faktu, že pro každý přírodní jev můžeme vytvořit velký počet alternativních modelů, ale také z faktu, že nedisponujeme univerzálním pravidlem pro výběr mezi nimi. To vše mluví ve prospěch platnosti teze o nedourčenosti., Petr Jedlička., and Obsahuje bibliografii
Chlorophyll fluorescence parameter Fv/Fm, an indicator of the maximum efficiency of PS2, is routinely measured in the field with plant leaves darkened by leaf clips. I found that on a sunny day of subtropical summer, the Fv/Fm ratio was often underestimated because of a large F0 value resulted from a high leaf temperature caused by clipping the leaf under high irradiance, especially for long (e.g. 20 min) duration. This phenomenon may overestimate the down-regulation of PS2 efficiency under high irradiance. When leaf temperature was lower than 40 °C, the F0 level of rice leaves under clipping remained practically unchanged. However, F0 increased drastically with leaf temperature rising over 40 °C. In most measurements, no significant difference in Fm was found between rice leaves dark-adapted by leaf clips for 10 min and for 20 min. Therefore, shading leaf clips to prevent a drastic increase of leaf temperature, using F0 measured immediately after the leaf being darkened to calculate Fv/Fm, as well as shortening the duration of leaf clipping are useful means to avoid an underestimate of Fv/Fm.
Leaves under stressful conditions usually show downregulated maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II [inferred from variable to maximum chlorophyll (Chl) a fluorescence (Fv/Fm), usually lower than 0.8], indicating photoinhibition. The usual method to evaluate the degree of photoinhibition in winter red leaves is generally by measuring the Fv/Fm on the red adaxial surface. Two phenotypes of overwintering Buxus microphylla ‘Wintergreen’ red leaves, with different measuring site and leaf thickness, were investigated in order to elucidate how red pigments in the outer leaf layer affected the Chl a fluorescence (Fv/Fm) and photochemical reflectance index. Our results showed that the Fv/Fm measured on leaves with the same red surface, but different leaf thickness, exhibited a slightly lower value in half leaf (separated upper and lower layers of leaves by removing the leaf edge similarly as affected by winter freezing and thawing) than that in the intact leaf (without removing the leaf edge), and the Fv/Fm measured on the red surface was significantly lower than that on the inner or backlighted green surface of the same thickness. Our results suggest that the usual measurement of Fv/Fm on red adaxial surface overestimates the actual degree of photoinhibition compared with that of the whole leaf in the winter., J. G. Peng, X. R. Jiang, J. Xu, L. Guo, R. F. Gao, Y. Liu., and Obsahuje použitou literaturu