In present paper we assess the climate change impact on mean runoff between the periods 1961-1990 (control period) and 2070-2099 (scenario period) in the Czech Republic. Hydrological balance is modelled with a conceptual hydrological model BILAN at 250 catchments of different sizes and climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are derived using simple delta approach, i.e. observed series of precipitation, temperature and relative air humidity are perturbed in order to give the same changes between the control and scenario period as in the ensemble of 15 transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The parameters of the hydrological model are for each catchment estimated using observed data. These parameters are subsequently used to derive discharge series under climate change conditions for each RCM simulation. Although the differences in the absolute values of the changes in runoff are considerable, robust patterns of changes can be identified. The majority of the scenarios project an increase in winter runoff in the northern part of the Czech Republic, especially at catchments with high elevation. The scenarios also agree on a decrease in spring and summer runoff in most of the catchments. and V článku předkládáme výsledky modelování změn hydrologického režimu v důsledku změn klimatu mezi časovými obdobími 1961-1990 a 2070-2099 podle souboru patnácti regionálních klimatických modelů pro 250 povodí v České republice. Hydrologická bilance byla modelována pomocí konceptuálního hydrologického modelu BILAN. Časové řady ovlivněné změnou klimatu byly získány jednoduchou přírůstkovou metodou, tj. pozorované časové řady srážek, teplot a vlhkostí vzduchu (vstupy do modelu BILAN) byly opraveny pro každou simulaci pomocí přírůstkových faktorů tak, aby měsíční změny těchto veličin byly stejné jako podle uvažované simulace klimatického modelu. Hydrologický model je nakalibrován s využitím pozorovaných dat, identifikované parametry jsou následně využity pro simulaci hydrologické bilance pro řady ovlivněné klimatickou změnou. Základní podstata možných změn hydrologické bilance na území České republiky vyplývá z projekcí srážek a teplot pro Evropu, tj. postupné zvyšování teplot během celého roku a pokles letních, růst zimních a stagnace ročních srážek. V období od začátku podzimu do začátku léta dochází k růstu srážek, jenž je doprovázen řádově stejným růstem územního výparu způsobeným růstem teplot. V letním období dochází k poklesu srážek a v důsledku úbytku zásob vody v povodí nemůže docházet k výraznému zvyšování územního výparu. Důležitým faktorem ovlivňující změny odtoku je posun doby tání v důsledku vyšší teploty přibližně z dubna na leden-únor. Změny odtoku v období leden-květen jsou tedy dominantně určeny právě odlišnou dynamikou sněhové zásoby, změny v letním období zejména úbytkem srážek. Výsledné odhady změn odtoku jsou zatíženy značnou nejistotou, nicméně lze identifikovat robustní jevy společné pro řadu simulací. Jak ukazují výsledky, na většině modelovaných povodí je pokles odtoků v období od dubna do října společný valné většině modelů. Na druhé straně, růst odtoku v zimních měsících je značně nejistý. S tím souvisí i nejistota spojená se změnami roční bilance odtoků.
Vegetation on mountains is expected to react in a highly sensitive way to climate change and species losses are predicted in the near future. By means of monitoring studies changes in species diversity can be continuously recorded. In this paper the results of a 7-year study in the Southern Alps are reported. As part of the worldwide network GLORIA (The Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) four summits, at altitudes ranging from the treeline to the alpine-subnival ecotone (2199, 2463, 2757 and 2893 m a.s.l.) in the Dolomites (northern Italy) were studied. Sites on the four summits were used to determine the effects of climate warming and observe changes in the numbers of species of vascular plants, frequency and composition. It is hypothesized that ‘thermophilization’ is likely to occur over a period of 7 years (i.e. species from lower altitudes are expected to migrate to the summits due to climate warming). It is also hypothesized that nival, alpine-subnival and endemic species might decrease due to competitive displacement by species from lower altitudes. The summit areas were comprehensively sampled (from the highest point down to the 10 m contour line) in 2001, 2006 and 2008. In addition, 4 × 1 m2 permanent plots located 5 m below the highest summit point on the north, south, east and west sides of each summit were sampled. The results of revisiting the summits indicate that the number of species increased on all four summits, with the greatest gains (15% and 18%) recorded on the two highest summits and moderate gains (4% and 9%) on the two lower summits. Species’ frequencies within the 1 m2 plots also increased during the 2001–2008 period. A thermophilization trend was demonstrated in which species with distribution centres in the montane or tree line zones were found for the first time on three of the summits. On the lowest summit, the vigorous growth of trees and establishment of new saplings indicate an upward migration of the forest boundary. Species that disappeared from the four summits belonged to species with different altitudinal ranges; however, nival and subnival-alpine species remained. One endemic species, Potentilla nitida, disappeared from the highest summit. Further changes and clearer trends are expected in the next decade.
There is public concern that large-scale disturbances to forest cover caused by insects and storm winds in the Bohemian Forest could intensify high water flows and enhance the expected flooding risks predicted in current regional climate change scenarios. We analysed stream discharge in Upper Vydra and Große Ohe, neighbouring catchments in the Bohemian Forest, the largest contiguous forested area in Central Europe. Upper Vydra, in the Šumava National Park, and Große Ohe (including the Upper Große Ohe headwater catchment in the Bavarian Forest National Park) are similar in size, but differ in land use cover and the extent of disturbed Norway spruce stands. Publicly available runoff and meteorological data (1978-2011) were examined using non-parametric trend and breakpoint analysis. Together with mapped vegetation cover changes, the results were used to address the following questions: 1) are there significant changes in the hydrological cycle and, if so, do these changes relate to 2) the extent and expansion of disturbance in forests stands and/or 3) altered precipitation dynamics and thermal conditions? We found no marked overall change in annual runoff or in annual or seasonal precipitation, but a significant increase in high flows in March. This overall trend related to the marked warming in late winter and early spring (+~4 K in April, p < 0.01), irrespective of altitude and slope position. It significantly shifted the end of the snow cover period by more than three weeks to the beginning/middle of April depending on altitude, and intensified snow melt. In the Upper Große Ohe catchment, a significant decrease in catchment balance, the difference between the long term precipitation and runoff (-72 mm, 11%) was found when the loss of tree cover reached 30% of catchment area. Diminished evapotranspiration losses from severely disturbed stands increased groundwater recharge during summer and caused a significant rise in low flows in autumn. However, observed increases in late winter high flows were due to warming only. They could be further intensified by the increasing winter precipitation predicted under present climate change scenarios, and would therefore increase the risk of flooding at lower elevations.
The invasion of Austria by the alien vascular plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae) is analysed in detail, based on a survey of available records. In total, 697 records were collated. The first record for Austria is a herbarium specimen collected in 1883. Up to the end of the 1940s, records were rare and only of casual populations resulting from long-distance dispersal. Since the 1950s, the number of records has increased exponentially, and more than one third of all records (242) were collected in the last 5-year period (2001–2005) included in the survey. The first naturalized population was recorded in 1952, nearly 70 years after the first record of a casual population. Recently, the number of naturalized populations increased considerably faster than that of casual populations. Several pathways (contaminated crops and bird seed, agricultural machines, transport of soil) have contributed to the high levels of propagule pressure and this successful invasion. Ambrosia artemisiifolia has undergone a niche expansion during the invasion process. Up to 1950, most records were from sites along railway routes, whereas in the period 1950–1974 itwas mostly ruderal habitats, not associated with traffic infrastructure, which were colonized. Since the 1970s, records from roadsides have increased strongly and now dominate. Fields were colonized first in the 1970s and since then have gained in importance. The distribution of naturalized populations was related to environmental and climatic variables by means of a generalized linear model. Their distribution in Austria is closely related to temperature. Landscape variables, describing aspects of habitat availability (topography, land use, major street density) also significantly explain the current distribution of A. artemisiifolia. Suitable habitats currently occur mainly in the eastern and southeastern lowlands. We conclude that global warming will disproportionally enhance the invasion success of A. artemisiifolia in Austria, even if there is only a slight increase in temperature, as significant areas of agricultural land in Austria are currently only slightly too cool for A. artemisiifolia. The widespread occurrence of this species will have serious consequences for human health and agriculture.
Data on pupation and emergence dates for the nymphalid Purple Emperor butterfly Apatura iris have been collected at Basel, Switzerland, between 1982 and 2002. The butterfly has been shown to emerge on average 9 (males) to 12 (females) days earlier per decade, 19 and 24 days earlier respectively over the study period. Emergence dates relate strongly to spring temperatures, particularly with daily maximum temperatures for the months March to May. Temperatures for these months have increased significantly during this period (0.7°C to 1.8°C per decade). Three factors suggest that the strongest influence of the rise in spring temperatures has been on late larval instar growth and development: (i) May temperatures dominate emergence date models and larvae are feeding faster and for longer periods during this month, (ii) Salix caprea flowering date, a surrogate for bud burst, is excluded in stepwise regression models with temperatures and years suggesting that tree phenology may be less important than temperature effects on later development, and (iii) convergence of female and male emergence dates over time points to limits on earlier feeding in protandrous males. A negative consequence observed with earlier emergence dates is lethal extra broods.
Climate change impacts on water cycle at regional scale have been recently very investigated and discussed issue. This study focuses on changes of not only total runoff but also others water balance components: soil water content and evapotranspiration, in a monthly step. The climate change was described using outputs of two different global circulations models, ECHAM and HadCM based on two divergent scenarios (optimistic B1 and pessimistic A2) according to the IPCC. The simulation of water cycle was processed in the mesoscale Malse basin (437 km2 ) in southern Bohemia using distributed physically based hydrological model SWIM. The outputs for the time horizon 2050 were assessed in comparison with mean values from the representative period 1987-1998. The study indicates vulnerability against predicted changes of both temperature and precipitation patterns referred to the selected scenarios. A decrease of total runoff was expected; however, hydrological balance will be different particularly in the monthly pattern within a year. The aim of this article is to describe the impact on various hydrological balance components. and Stále aktuálnější otázkou jsou dnes dopady klimatické změny na hydrologický cyklus v regionálním měřítku. Tato studie se zaměřuje na sledování změny nejen odtoku, ale také změn obsahu půdní vody a evapotranspirace, a to v měsíčním kroku v průběhu roku. Pro popis změny klimatu byly zvoleny výstupy dvou globálních modelů ECHAM a HadCM podle dvou odlišných scénářů budoucího klimatického vývoje (optimistický B1 a pesimistický A2) podle IPCC. Hydrologický cyklus byl simulován použitím distribuovaného fyzikálního hydrologického modelu SWIM, a to na středně velkém povodí jihočeské Malše (437 km2 ), pro závěrový profil Pořešín. Výstupy odpovídající hypotetickému stavu v roce 2050 byly porovnávány s dlouhodobými průměrnými hodnotami z povodí za léta 1987-1998. Ukazuje se, že středně velké povodí Malše je citlivé vůči předpovídaným změnám teplot a srážek a podle scénářů dojde k očekávanému celkovému poklesu odtoku z povodí. Tento pokles bude provázen změnami hydrologické bilance během roku, viditelné především přesunem maximálních hodnot jednotlivých prvků do jiných měsíců.
Historical data sources on abundance of organisms are valuable for determining responses of those organisms to climate change and coincidence of changes amongst different organisms. We investigate data on the general abundance of Lepidoptera over an 89 year period 1864-1952. We related abundance to monthly mean temperature and precipitation and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and to numbers of migrants from an independent source. Abundances of Lepidoptera were significantly positively correlated with current year temperatures for May to September and November and significantly negatively correlated with temperatures in January. Numbers were also negatively correlated with rainfall for April and May and annual total of the current year and with August in the previous year. Abundance of Lepidoptera decreased significantly with an increasing winter NAO index. Increased overall abundance in Lepidoptera coincided significantly with increased numbers of migrants. The climate associations were very similar to those previously reported for butterfly data collected by the British Butterfly Monitoring Scheme; although warm and drier summers were generally beneficial to Lepidoptera populations, wet summers and winters and mild winters were not. We discuss the implications for Lepidoptera biology and populations in regions of Britain in the face of projected climate changes.
In the study of Tomlain (1997) a soil water balance model was applied to evaluate the climate change impacts on the soil water storage in the Hurbanovo locality (Southwestern Slovakia), using the climate change scenarios of Slovakia for the years 2010, 2030, and 2075 by the global circulation models CCCM, GISS and GFD3. These calculations did not take into consideration neither the various soil properties, nor the groundwater table influence on soil water content. In this study, their calculated data were compared with those monitored at the same sites. There were found significant differences between resulting soil water storage of the upper 100 cm soil layer, most probably due to cappilary rise from groundwater at sites 2 and 3. It was shown, that the soil properties and groundwater table depth are importat features strongly influencing soil water content of the upper soil layer; thus the application of the soil water balance equation (Eq. (1)), neglecting the above mentioned factors, could lead to the results far from reality. and V práci Tomlaina (1997) bol aplikovaný bilančný model vodného režimu pôd na ohodnotenie dopadu klimatickej zmeny na vodné zásoby pôdy v lokalite Hurbanovo (juhozápadné Slovensko), použijúc scenáre klimatickej zmeny pre Slovensko pre roky 2010, 2030 a 2075, založené na globálnych cirkulačných modeloch CCCM, GISS a GFD3. V týchto výpočtoch nebol braný do úvahy vplyv vlastností pôdy a hladiny podzemnej vody na vlhkosť pôdy. V práci boli porovnané vypočítané hodnoty zásob vody s monitorovanými v tej istej lokalite. Bol nájdený význačný rozdiel medzi zásobami vody v 100-cm hornej vrstve pôdy najpravdepodobnejšie spôsobený kapilárnym prítokom od hladiny podzemnej vody v monitorovacích miestach 2 a 3. Bolo ukázané, že pôdne vlastnosti a hĺbka hladiny podzemnej vody sú dôležitými faktormi, ktoré silno ovplyvňujú vlhkosť hornej vrstvy pôdy; z toho vyplýva, že aplikácia bilančnej rovnice (rov. (1)), ktorá zanedbáva vyššie uvedené faktory, nedáva reálne výsledky.
A closed CO2 and temperature-controlled, long-term chamber system has been developed and set up in a typical boreal forest of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) near the Mekrijärvi Research Station (62°47'N, 30°58'E, 145 m above sea level) belonging to the University of Joensuu, Finland. The main objectives of the experiment were to provide a means of assessing the medium to long-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (EC) and temperature (ET) on photosynthesis, respiration, growth, and biomass at the whole-tree level and to measure instantaneous whole-system CO2 exchange. The system consists of 16 chambers with individual facilities for controlling CO2 concentration, temperature, and the combination of the two. The chambers can provide a wide variety of climatic conditions that are similar to natural regimes. In this experiment the target CO2 concentration in the EC chambers was set at a fixed constant of 700 µmol mol-1 and the target air temperature in the ET chambers to track the ambient temperature but with a specified addition. Chamber performance was assessed on the base of recordings covering three consecutive years. The CO2 and temperature control in these closed chambers was in general accurate and reliable. CO2 concentration in the EC chambers was within 600-725 µmol mol-1 for 90 % of the exposure time during the "growing-season" (15 April - 15 September) and 625-725 µmol mol-1 for 88 % of the time in the "off-season" (16 September - 14 April), while temperatures in the chambers were within ±2.0 °C of the ambient or target temperature in the "growing season" and within ±3.0 °C in the "off season". There were still some significant chamber effects. Solar radiation in the chambers was reduced by 50-60 % for 82 % of the time in the "growing season" and 55-65 % for 78 % of the time in the "off season", and the relative humidity of the air was increased by 5-10 % for 72 % of the time in the "growing season" and 2-12 % for 91 % of the time in the "off season". The crown architecture and main phenophase of the trees were not modified significantly by enclosure in the chambers, but some physiological parameters changed significantly, e.g., the radiant energy-saturated photosynthesis rate, transpiration rate, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem 2, and chlorophyll content. and S. Kellomäki, Kai-Yun Wang, M. Lemettinen.
Responses of insects to recent climate change have been well documented in a number of taxa, but not in wasps. This study examined shifts in phenology of the two most important wasp species (Vespa crabro and Vespula germanica) in Poland over the last three decades. Both species showed similar temporal trends, advancing their phenology after the early 1980s, but this pattern was detected only for workers not for the appearance of queens. The appearance times for V. germanica were negatively related to mean April temperature, appearing earlier in years with warmer springs, and positively related to precipitation in April. The studied species advanced aspects of their phenology, but linking this to temperature was not achieved for V. crabro suggesting that we have to pay more attention to the life history traits of the study organisms.